Entry conditions
What has to be true before this outcome is plausible.
- Mobilization becomes sustained and politically consequential.
- The movement seeks changes larger than the political system is willing or able to concede immediately.
- State capacity and coalition cohesion remain substantial.
Institutional pathway
How the outcome develops at the system level.
- Pressure produces disruption but fails to generate sufficient institutional withdrawal.
- Partial concessions, elections, legal processes, repression, fatigue, economic normalization pressure, or internal disagreement reduce participation or unity.
- Security and administrative systems continue functioning well enough to prevent a transfer of governing authority.
Termination conditions
What distinguishes an outcome from an unresolved phase.
- Participation falls, fragments, institutionalizes, or is contained without achieving the maximal political objective.
- Existing authorities retain control of core institutions and services.
- Residual grievances shift into elections, litigation, organization, or lower-intensity contention.
Economic & humanitarian consequences
What the corpus says to watch after the political label.
- Failure can coexist with important policy change, social learning, casualties, economic loss, arrests, or later political effects.
- Repression-heavy outcomes may leave substantial long-term legitimacy and human-rights consequences even when incumbent authority survives.
Restoration / reconstruction
What ordinary governance has to recover.
- Restore public services and ordinary legal process.
- Investigate serious violence or misconduct through accountable institutions.
- Keep lawful political channels open for unresolved grievances.
Common misreads
Do not collapse these into the outcome.
- Failure to remove a government does not mean the movement had no effect.
- A temporary decline in turnout does not necessarily mean permanent demobilization.
- Large protests do not imply the state was close to collapse.
Confidence
Evidence boundary.
High that institutional cohesion and coalition fragmentation are central mechanisms; low for numerical turnout thresholds.
Current-sensitive legal, institutional, fiscal, election, and threat claims must be reverified before present-tense reliance.