The rupture is not the outcome.
Political orders can restore, reform, negotiate, consolidate, fragment, or remain trapped in conflict. The outcome library studies what comes after the decisive moment—when legitimacy, administration, coercive power, and coalition cohesion still have to be rebuilt or reassembled.
Post-revolution outcomes decision tree
A high-detail decision tree showing how rupture can move toward restoration, settlement, reform, authoritarian consolidation, fragmentation, or prolonged conflict.
Policy Concession
A severe mobilization can end through specific concessions without producing leadership or regime change. The reports treat concessions as potentially decisive because heterogeneous coalitions often contain groups with narrower objectives.
Open reference →outcomeNegotiated Settlement
Negotiated settlements become possible when opposing actors still recognize a common process, intermediaries, and some enforceable institutional framework. They are stronger when courts, services, payments, and security cohesion remain intact enough to implement terms.
Open reference →outcomeElectoral Channeling
Political contention can be redirected into elections when administration remains viable and participants believe electoral outcomes can still change leadership or policy. This is a recurrent off-ramp in the corpus.
Open reference →outcomeLeadership Resignation
Leadership resignation can terminate one political conflict while leaving the constitutional state intact when lawful succession is recognized and institutions continue operating.
Open reference →outcomeLawful Succession
Lawful succession is a continuity outcome in which leadership changes while institutions continue to recognize the constitutional/statutory chain. The reports emphasize status determination, written authority, and cross-institutional recognition.
Open reference →outcomeFailed Uprising
The reports give failure mechanisms substantial weight: coalition fragmentation, public fatigue, uneven labor participation, continuing elections/courts, business demand for normalization, security cohesion, and preserved services can keep large mobilization from becoming a government-survival crisis.
Open reference →outcomeCoalition Fragmentation
Coalition fragmentation occurs when participants diverge over demands, concessions, elections, violence, leadership, or the desired post-crisis order. It can happen before or after major political gains.
Open reference →outcomeConstitutional Restoration
Restoration means ordinary constitutional constraints, recognized authority, judicial compliance, electoral competition, administration, and peaceful alternation regain practical force after acute stress.
Open reference →outcomeAuthoritarian Consolidation
Comparative material treats consolidation as the practical weakening of competitive and checking institutions, sometimes while elections and constitutional forms remain. The key question is functional corrective capacity, not a label applied to a single policy dispute.
Open reference →outcomeCompeting Government
A competing-government outcome requires more than rival claims. Durable agencies, security organizations, fiscal systems, courts, states, or counterparties must begin recognizing incompatible authorities and sustaining those chains over time.
Open reference →outcomeTerritorial Fragmentation
The federal-state reports treat clean territorial partition as a demanding tail outcome because authority, payments, courts, municipalities, markets, and security institutions are deeply cross-cutting.
Open reference →outcomeProlonged Internal Conflict
The armed scenarios treat prolonged conflict as an extreme tail requiring persistent organized violence plus broader institutional degradation. Humanitarian and economic costs rise nonlinearly as services, finance, displacement, and security cohesion deteriorate.
Open reference →outcomePost-Crisis Reconstruction
Reconstruction is the work of restoring ordinary authority, staffing, courts, services, records, payment confidence, and institutional trust after acute crisis. The corpus treats reconstitution as more than simply declaring the emergency over.
Open reference →The day after is part of the outcome.
Thirteen dossiers map entry conditions, institutional pathways, termination, human and economic consequence, and reconstruction. Removing an incumbent, winning a confrontation, or surviving a crackdown does not by itself create a durable political order.
Ending the emergency is not the same as restoring the system.
Authority, representation, courts, administration, payments, records, services, and independent constraints all require reconstitution.
Open restoration dossier →Failure analysisFailure is not “nothing happened.”
Movements can fail to obtain maximal political change while still producing concessions, casualties, economic effects, institutional learning, and later electoral consequences.
Open failure dossier →