The transmission path runs through uncertainty, staffing, settlement, contracts, services, and duration.
The economic reports emphasize transmission rather than instant collapse. Political conflict becomes economically consequential through uncertainty, transaction costs, administrative delay, staffing loss, payment friction, contractor stress, supply disruption, insurance repricing, reduced investment, and deteriorating service reliability.
Firms delay irreversible decisions, lawyers and regulators review authority, markets reprice uncertainty, and agencies accumulate backlogs.
Payment delays, staffing loss, procurement friction, supplier weakness, and repeated disruption begin to exhaust buffers.
The most dangerous economic threshold is loss of confidence that obligations, judgments, contracts, and payments remain enforceable through ordinary national channels.
Use these findings as mechanism-level synthesis. Historical cases are not templates, scenario ranges are not forecasts, and present-tense legal or institutional claims require current verification.